Forecasting Lab

A revival path for the old forecasting projects: literature invariants, live data probes, simulation hot paths, and a realistic adapter-first engineering implementation.

Live Data Truth

Numerai

live GraphQL ok

latest round 1304, closes 2026-07-07T12:00:00Z

Metaculus

auth required, as expected

Use token-backed client; do not fake public forecasts.

Simulation Hot Paths

forecaster	Brier	log	reliability	resolution	utility
base-rate-human	0.2309	0.6545	0.0160	0.0318	0.0177
overconfident-ai	0.2340	0.6923	0.0186	0.0358	0.1787
trained-human	0.2153	0.6180	0.0023	0.0361	0.1897
ai-assisted-human	0.2158	0.6196	0.0030	0.0370	0.1827
herding-market	0.2187	0.6301	0.0077	0.0375	0.2120

Old Project Revival Order

~/HQ/loom/nimitta.html as unified workbench.
~/landings/numerai with live Numerai round/dataset adapter.
~/landings/metaculus-review as token-backed Metaculus workbench.
~/foresight as public front door.

Engineering Contract

Adapter.probe() -> lifecycle status
Adapter.search(query) -> normalized questions/markets
Forecast -> probability + rationale + revision history
Score -> Brier/log + reliability bins + provenance